GOP Proposes Immigration Reform; Now What?

Last week, Republican leaders from the House of Representatives circulated a one page set of principles on immigration reform among rank and file members at a retreat in Cambridge, Massachusetts.  According to Time Magazine, the proposal included a pathway to legalization for undocumented aliens already present in the United States, provided border protection measures are taken and the undocumented meet certain criteria.

Time quotes that GOP leaders proposed that undocumented aliens "could live here legally and without fear in the U.S., but only if they were willing to admit their culpability, pass rigorous background checks, pay significant fines and back taxes, develop proficiency in English and American civics, and be able to support themselves and their families."  The Republicans principles did not include a pathway to citizenship, which the Washington Post reports may be an area where immigration reform advocates are willing to compromise.

Despite the support from Republican House leaders, whether immigration reform will even happen is "in doubt," according to Representative Paul Ryan.  Ryan has been the target of the ire of conservative talk show hosts for his support of immigration reform.  Ryan appeared on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, stating, "Security first, no amnesty, then we might be able to get somewhere."  When asked specifically if Congress would pass an immigration reform bill this year, Ryan responded, "I really don't know the answer to that question. That's clearly in doubt."

After Mitt Romney's loss in the 2012 Presidential elections, the conventional wisdom was that the Republicans had to support some degree of immigration reform that included the granting of legal status to the undocumented aliens already present in the country if they were to remain competitive in national elections.  This was due to the overwhelming majorities that Latino and Asian voters gave the President.  What happened since then?

In truth, House Republicans are focused on the 2014 mid-term Congressional elections.  Most House Republicans come from "safe" districts, where the election of a Republican is almost certain.  Support for any immigration reform that can be seen as amnesty would more likely result in a credible challenge in the primaries, and not in the election of a Democrat.

Add to this situation the President's recent troubles with the cornerstone of his Administration: Obamacare.  With the program becoming increasingly unpopular, there is a real possibility that the Republicans may be able to take the Senate in the mid-term elections too.

Last week, talk show host Rush Limbaugh questioned why the Republicans would push for any immigration reform that includes so-called "amnesty."  Citing an article from the Politico, Limbaugh noted that Democrat may even be conceding control of the House to the Republicans in order to concentrate electoral resources on saving the Senate.  Limbaugh speculated that if the Republicans were poised to have such electoral success in 2014, the only way to derail that success now is if the party pushed for immigration reform.  Specifically, Limbaugh claimed that if Republicans supported "amnesty," that would likely cause faithful Republican voters to stay home on election day.

With this political climate, then, the passage of immigration reform, which seemed to be a sure thing in late 2012, early 2013, is not a sure thing.  Those who may have been waiting to see if reform would pass instead of acting on legal possibilities now may be well advised to re-think that strategy.

To discuss what possibilities may be available under the law, call now for an appointment.

William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
wkovatch@kovatchlegalservices.com

Immigration Reform Heads to the Republican Controlled House of Representatives

Immigration reform passed the Senate last week with a vote of 68-32.  The issue now heads to the House of Representatives, where it's future is less certain.

While almost 70 Senators voted for the reform bill, the fact remains that only 14, or less than one-third, of Republican Senators voted for it.

Unlike the Senate, the House is controlled by Republicans.  Speaker of the House, John Boehner, is not likely to bring proposed legislation to the floor for a vote unless a majority of the House Republicans are in favor of it.  Although Republicans are in favor of certain reform measures, there is one issue that Republicans may strongly contest.

Namely, the pathway to citizenship for those already present in the country may turn out to be a measure House Republicans won't swallow.  In a way, Republicans may be guided by the politics of self-preservation.  On the one hand, PBS reports that most House Republicans are in safe districts.  This means that if those Republicans vote in favor of a pathway to citizenship, they are more likely to face a primary challenge from a conservative candidate angry over immigration reform than a strong Democratic challenge in the November 2014 elections.

Then, there is the issue of what would happen to the future electoral chances of the Republican Party if millions of Latinos already present in the United States become full citizens with voting rights.  Although it is a mistake to consider Latinos as a single, unified group (Cubans tend to vote differently than Mexicans, for example), in generally Latinos tend to vote Democratic.  In the last election, over two-thirds of the Latino vote went to President Obama.  Republicans will be very reluctant to endanger their future electoral success by voting for a pathway to citizenship.

That is not to say that Republicans oppose immigration reform.  Jeb Bush and Clint Bolick published an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal making a Republican case for immigration reform.  Their emphasis was on reducing family based immigration in favor of more employment based immigration.  The two viewed this as the House of Representative's opportunity to make changes to the Senate proposal, more in line with conservative values.  The House, for example, can insist on greater border control measures.  Regarding the path to citizenship, Bush and Bolick would make the civics test for naturalization more challenging.

In the end, Bush and Bolick state that Republicans have more in common with immigrants, such as "beliefs in hard work, enterprise, family, education, patriotism and faith."  Bush and Bolick urge Republicans to stop being an obstacle to reform, "and instead point the way toward the solution."

Of course, there may be a way to push for reform, with providing some political cover for House Republicans.  This is through the use of the discharge petition.  If 218 House members sign a discharge petition, then the legislation would come to the floor of the House for a vote despite opposition of the House leadership.   This is a rare occurrence, as it requires a few members of the majority party to join forces with the minority party in order to bypass House leadership.  In normal circumstances, this would mean reprisals against the those members of the majority party who side with the minority party.

A discharge petition, however, may be exactly what House Republican leaders need to allow immigration reform to come to a vote without making it look like their fingerprints are on it.  That is, if there is pressure from Republican leaders outside of the House to bring the measure to the floor, the House leadership could work behind the scenes to encourage those Republicans in the House who support the measure to sign the discharge petition and force the measure to come to the floor.  Then, the House leadership and the majority of the House Republicans could go back to their districts and claim that they had nothing to do with immigration reform and even voted against it.

This is just one vision of how things could proceed in the House.  As of this moment, it is just speculation.  Steve Benen of MSNBC reports that the House already has a bipartison group working on its own version of immigration reform legislation.  If nothing else, immigration reform may continue to dominate Washington politics for a few months before we know what the outcome will be.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com

Immigration Reform Passes Senate; What Will Happen in the House?

On June 27, 2013, immigration reform passed the Senate by an overwhelming 68-32 vote.  The bill which passed the Senate was broad set of reforms, from asylum law changes to the creation of immigration benefits for a broad set of people currently present in the country without status.  The most controversial portion of the bill appears to be the creation of the Registered Provisional Immigrant status, which provides legal status to alien present in the country since on or before December 31, 2011.

Reform now faces a tough test in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the Republicans.  The Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, has stated that the country needs comprehensive immigration reform. Speaker of the House, John Boehner, however, has made it clear that the House will not simply take up the Senate bill and vote on it.  Instead, the House will craft its own bill, based on the leanings of Republican majority.  Some analysts believe the House will pass a series of smaller bills, each addressing a discrete topic of immigration reform.  Other believe that the House will pass a comprehensive bill, and will send the issue to a joint committee with the Senate to negotiate a compromise.

One of the biggest sticking points for House Republicans could be the Registered Provisional Immigrant status, which some view as amnesty for illegal actions.  Of course, Republicans may pressure to find a way to appeal to Latino voters, who voted for President Obama in the last election at a ratio of 3 to 1.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com