Imigration Reform Is Dead? How Did That Happen?

In less than a week, Republican House leadership went from revealing their principles for immigration reform to acknowledging that there was very little chance of passing reform this year.  Indeed, a few days after the proposal was revealed at a GOP legislative retreat, reform proponent Paul Ryan stated that the passage of reform was "clearly in doubt."  This was followed by House Speaker John Boehner declaring that passage of reform legislation would be "difficult" days later.

So what happened?  How did the fortunes of immigration reform legislation change so rapidly in sch a short period of time?

The Process Took Too Long

Strike while the iron is hot.  That's the conventional wisdom.  Use the momentum and advantage while you have it.

After the 2012 presidential election, the passage of immigration reform looked all but certain.  Even conservative talk show hosts, like Sean Hannity, stated that they had rethought immigration reform and supported a pathway to citizenship.

But, immigration reform was not the top priority either for the Administration or Congress.  Rather, the nation first had to face the crisis created by the so-called "fiscal cliff."

Once the crisis was settled, it became a race between a bipartisan committee from the House, which had been working on immigration reform behind the scenes since 2009, and the Senate "Gang of Eight."  According to The Hill, President Obama and Senator Chuck Schumer were not happy with concessions that House Democrats had made, and intervened with House Democrat Luis Gutierrez to slow the progress of the House bill in order to allow the Gang of Eight's bill to pass the Senate first, and thus shape the immigration debate.Once the Senate bill passed, momentum for the House bill died over the summer.

The Hill continues, reporting that two Texas Republicans, John Carter and Sam Johnson, were ready to introduce a bill in the House.  However, they received no commitment from Speaker Boehner.  Washington was then bogged down in the autumn, first by the situation in Syria, and then with the Government shut-down orchestrated by GOP tea party members.

By time Congress passed a new budget, opponents of immigration reform began to strengthen.  Tea party supporters were boosted within GOP ranks by their ability to shut down the Government.  By mid-November, Boehner was saying that there were not enough legislative days left in 2013 to address immigration reform.  Boehner ruled out going into a Conference Committee where the Senate bill would set the agenda.  Indeed, there was a fear among House Republicans that even if the House passed smaller bills on immigration reform that the Senate would use that as an opportunity to inject principles from the Senate bill into the resulting legislation.

When it appeared that the wheels were coming off of the Obamacare band wagon, House Republicans saw no reason to push for immigration reform in 2013.  Indeed, the momentum had shifted in Washington, placing Democrats on the defensive.

Republicans Don't Trust Obama

One theme that emerged from the demise of immigration reform last week was that House Republicans just don't trust President Obama.  The main issue is that of border security.  GOP leader had tried to sell reform to rank and file party members by promising that any pathway to legal status for undocumented aliens already present in the country would be tied to greater border security.  When conservative House Republicans voiced resistance to the leadership's principles, it prompted Boehner to say, "Listen, there’s widespread doubt about whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws."

If the President was trying to earn such trust, he had done himself no favors in the State of the Union Address.  There, he was seen as throwing the down the gauntlet, threatening unilateral executive action if Congress would not bend to his will in passing certain legislation in the remainder of the President's term.  Indeed, the President's reputation for acting unilaterally, and in the eyes of any conservatives unconstitutionally, on immigration issues is well-earned.  When Congress did not pass the DREAM Act, for example, the President responded by implementing his Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program unilaterally.  House Republicans fear that even if reform legislation included border security requirements, this President will simply refuse to enforce them.

Republicans Are Now Focused on the Mid-Term Elections

As I wrote last week, the Republicans are now very optimistic of winning control of both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  Democratic control of the Senate is in jeopardy, in part due to the continued unpopularity of Obamacare.  In the House, many GOP members are from "safe" districts, where the real electoral threat comes not from a Democratic challenger in the general election, but from a more conservative challenger in the primary election.

Many conservatives see supporting any immigration reform that includes any type of "amnesty" as political suicide.  Not only will it alienate more conservative voters, but it would only eventually add to the number of voters who support Democrats, as the undocumented aliens are overwhelmingly Latino.  Should the undocumented eventually become citizens, then the number of Latino voters will rise.  Given the huge majorities which Latinos gave the President in 2012, conservatives believe that adding so many Latino voters to the rolls will relegate the Republicans to a permanent minority party.

Democrats Couldn't Care Less if Immigration Reform Actually Passes

Meanwhile, Democrats are in no hurry to have immigration reform actually become law.  The reason is that it continues to give Democrats a political issue to bash Republicans over the head with in national elections.  Democrats can easily be seen as supporting immigration reform by pushing for legislation.  But, if the Republicans continue to oppose reform, Democrats can point the finger at the GOP and continue to use the issue to garner Latino and Asian support.

So Long as Republicans Have Legislative Power, Immigration Reform Remains in Doubt

The last time that immigration reform came close to passage, it was in 2006, when Republican George Bush was president, and the Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.  The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006 included a guest worker program and a pathway to citizenship.  If Republicans really intended to pass reform, they had the political power to do so.  However, reform died in December of 2006, in the lame duck session, as many Republicans who has previously supported reform turned on the bill, in the wake of the Republicans 2006 electoral defeat.

Similar to the current political climate, conservatives who opposed reform gained momentum and worked to block passage.

Will Some Kind of Immigration Reform Pass this Year?

 There are certainly some optimists left in Washington on immigration reform.  Chuck Schumer has proposed, for example, enacting the legislation now, but delaying implementation until 2017.  The conventional wisdom, however, is that the prospects of passage is less than 50-50.  Considering that the 2016 presidential elections are on the horizon, if reform does not pass this year, it may be doubtful that it will pass until a new person is sworn in as Commander-in-Chief.  At this point, neither party appears eager to push for a quick resolution.

William J. Kovatch, Jr.
for an appointment, call (703) 837-8832
wkovatch@kovatchlegalservices.com

Immigration Reform Passes Senate; What Will Happen in the House?

On June 27, 2013, immigration reform passed the Senate by an overwhelming 68-32 vote.  The bill which passed the Senate was broad set of reforms, from asylum law changes to the creation of immigration benefits for a broad set of people currently present in the country without status.  The most controversial portion of the bill appears to be the creation of the Registered Provisional Immigrant status, which provides legal status to alien present in the country since on or before December 31, 2011.

Reform now faces a tough test in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the Republicans.  The Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, has stated that the country needs comprehensive immigration reform. Speaker of the House, John Boehner, however, has made it clear that the House will not simply take up the Senate bill and vote on it.  Instead, the House will craft its own bill, based on the leanings of Republican majority.  Some analysts believe the House will pass a series of smaller bills, each addressing a discrete topic of immigration reform.  Other believe that the House will pass a comprehensive bill, and will send the issue to a joint committee with the Senate to negotiate a compromise.

One of the biggest sticking points for House Republicans could be the Registered Provisional Immigrant status, which some view as amnesty for illegal actions.  Of course, Republicans may pressure to find a way to appeal to Latino voters, who voted for President Obama in the last election at a ratio of 3 to 1.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com

President to Press for Immigration Reform Early in the Next Congress

According to the Los Angeles Times, President Obama is preparing to press for comprehensive immigration early in the next Congress.  The plan calls for an all-out blitz as soon as talks over the country's fiscal problems dies down.  Reportedly, the campaign to press for immigration reform will focus on convincing Americans that reform will provide benefits in such areas as education, health care, business and safety.

The exact details of the President's proposal are still evolving.  Reportedly, the proposal will include a pathway to citizenship for those undocumented aliens already present in the United States, increased border security, increased penalties for employers who hire aliens unauthorized to work in the United States, and increased opportunities to hire foreign workers.

According to the Times, some Democrats believe that there is a narrow window to press for reform.  The closer it gets to the next congressional elections, the more likely members of Congress will be reluctant to vote in favor of a bill that has political risks.

Republicans, however, appear to be in favor of slower approach, tackling one issue at a time before addressing whether there should be a pathway to citizenship.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio has stated, "Portions of immigration reform can be dealt with quicker than others."  Congress, for example, could first approach expanding opportunities for science and technology workers and addressing undocumented aliens who were brought here as children before the more controversial subjects.

Recently, however, a bill to expand the number of visas available to science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) workers stalled in the Senate after being passed by the House.  The fight over the bill highlighted a key difference of opinions between Republicans and Democrats over the shape of reform.  Specifically, Republicans appear to believe that in order for there to be more visas available for STEM workers, over visa categories have to be eliminated.  Democrats, by contrast, do not view reform as a zero-sum game, seeing no need to eliminate some visas in order to expand the availability of others.

One key concern for Republicans is whether they would be sacrificing their political future by supporting immigration reform now.  Specifically, conservatives, such as Rush Limbaugh, have argued that if Republicans support a pathway to citizenship, they would simply be expanding the number of Democratic voters in the future.  This is a fear that can be seen by careful analysis of the Achieve Act currently pending  in the Senate.

The Achieve Act, sponsored by Republicans Kaye Bailey Hutchison, John Kyl and John McCain, is the Republicans' response to the DREAM Act.  It would create a way for some undocumented aliens brought to this country as children to have legal status.  However, the bill would create a non-immigrant visa for such aliens, which would not itself lead to citizenship.  Thus, beneficiaries under the Achieve Act would not automatically be on the path to obtain the right to vote.

While this appears to be the most positive atmosphere for immigration reform since President Bush attempted to press for a guest worker program, the battle will not be easy.  Competing interests will need to be addressed, and in some instances overcome, if the press for immigration reform is to be successful.

By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com

Political Wrangling Over Immigration Reform Begins

In the aftermath of the 2012 presidential election, some Republicans began pressing to change the party's stance on immigration reform as a way to change the party's image with Latino voters.  Over 70% of Latinos voted for President Obama, and was seen by many as a key reason for the President's victory.

Comprehensive immigration reform will take time and negotiations.  Some Republicans eager to start changing the party's image have introduced smaller proposals in Congress now, during the lame duck session, in an effort to give the GOP some credibility.

One such proposal is the expansion of the number of permanent residency visas available for workers in science, technology, engineering and math, so-called STEM workers.  I have already discussed the arduous process of hiring foreign-born STEM workers and applying for their visas on this blog.

While Republicans may not be completely unified on comprehensive immigration reform, STEM worker visas is one area where the GOP does have a degree of unity.  One Republican proposal on STEM worker visas was brought to a vote in September of this year.  The plan would have increased the number of visas available for STEM workers by 50,000, while eliminating the diversity visa program.  The diversity visa program, also known as the visa lottery, makes 50,000 visas available to people born in areas of the world that have sent the fewest immigrants to the United States in the past five years.

The GOP bill was brought to the floor in September under the suspension calendar, and needed a two-thirds majority to pass in the House of Representatives.  While the proposal failed to gain the required support in September, the bill to expand the number of STEM visas came to the floor on the regular calendar, and passed the House on November 30, 2012.  The bill passed, and was introduced in the Senate.

In the Senate, Republican John Cornyn sought unanimous consent to bring the bill on STEM worker visas to a vote.  Democrat Chuck Schumer objected, noting that while Democrats favored expanding the number of visas available for STEM workers, that Democrats did not believe it had to be done by eliminating the visas available under other immigration programs.

The political wrangling over immigration reform has therefore begun.  There is a question over whether the Democrats will even permit immigration reform to pass.  If immigration reform were to pass, it would rob the Democrats of a political issue where they believe they have an advantage over Republicans. 

This first foray into the issue of immigration reform, therefore, does not bode well for the passage of comprehensive reform.  If political parties cannot agree on the specifics of this one issue, where there is general agreement for the need to expand the visas available for STEM workers, then finding common ground on a host of other immigration topics could prove elusive.

By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com

Dream to Achieve: Comparison of Proposals to Address Young Undocumented Aliens

In the wake of the presidential elections, many in the Republican Party have shown a greater willingness to consider comprehensive immigration reform. In particular, many have seen a softening of the GOP's stance on immigration reform necessary in light of the overwhelming majority of Latino voters who supported President Obama.

Nonetheless, the Republicans may not be in complete uniformity on what shape comprehensive immigration reform should take.  One issue that may prove to be the most difficult to address could be what to do about the many undocumented aliens already in the country.  The issue of creating a guest worker program, with some pathway to citizenship, may complicate the drive for comprehensive reform.

In the meantime, there appears to be some agreement that young people, brought to this country as children and who have grown up as if they were Americans, deserve some form of relief.  This is on the heals of the President's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which could grant a promise not to deport such young people who meet certain qualifications.  The program has its roots in the DREAM Act, which failed in 2010 when a Senate filibuster prevented the bill from coming up for a vote.

At least two Republicans have been working on a similar bill over the past year.  Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and Jon Kyl, both of whom will retire in January, have been working on the Achieve Act as an alternative to the DREAM Act.  There appears to be a movement to try to bring the Achieve Act up for a vote before January.

The Achieve Act, however, has some major differences in qualifications when compared to the President's deferred action program.  If the Achieve Act were to pass, it could cause a number of people, who have applied for and already received deferred action, out in the cold as far as permanent relief is concerned.

The requirements for relief under the Achieve Act are:  (1) the applicant must have completed high-school and be admitted to college or earned a college degree, or completed high school and be enlisted in or have completed four years of military service; (2) the applicant must have entered the country before the age of 14; (3) the applicant must have lived in the U.S. continuously for five years; (4) the applicant must have not committed a felony, two misdemeanors with a jail term of over 30 days, or a crime of moral turpitude; (5) the applicant must not be subject to a final order of removal; (6) the applicant must pay a $525 fee; and (7) the applicant must be under the age of 28 (or 32 if they have a bachelor's degree from a U.S. university).

The major differences are:  (1) the deferred action program only requires that the applicant be enrolled in a U.S school, have a high school diploma, have a GED or be enrolled in classes to work toward a GED; (2) the deferred action program only requires that the applicant enter the United State before age 16; and (3) the deferred action program only requires that the applicant be under age 31 as of June 15, 2012.

With these key differences, there are several young people who would qualify under the deferred action program,  who would not qualify under the Achieve Act.  People who entered the United States after age 14, but before age 16, for example, would be out of luck under the Achieve Act.  Likewise, people who have a high school diploma, but who chose not to go on to higher education would be left out.  Finally, the cut-off age is lower for the Achieve Act.

It is unclear why the Republican proposal has stricter qualification requirements than the current deferred action program.  It may be explained by the fact that the bill was drafted before the President announced the program.  Nonetheless, equity would argue that the bill be modified to cover all of those covered by the deferred action program.  Whether that will happen, or the Republicans stick to their guns remains to be seen.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.
(703) 837-8832
info@kovatchimmigrationlaw.com

Kay Bailey Hutchison, of Texas, and Jon Kyl, of Arizona

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/republicans-mull-own-version-dream-act-vote-on-achieve-act-by-january/#ixzz2Cte3l3Wt

Kay Bailey Hutchison, of Texas, and Jon Kyl, of Arizona

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/republicans-mull-own-version-dream-act-vote-on-achieve-act-by-january/#ixzz2Cte3l3Wt